Failing to arrest people who commit violent crime undermines justice, safety, and trust in government. More accountability, instead of arbitrary punishment, is urgently needed.
The public is concerned about violent crime and lacks confidence in the criminal justice system. While violent crime has continued to decline since a spike in 2020, the percentage of violent crimes not solved by law enforcement hit an all-time high in 2022.1 Failing to solve violent crime means less justice for victims and their families, less trust in the justice system’s ability to protect and respond, and a greater risk of retaliatory violence. Policymakers can play an important role in helping law enforcement solve more violent crime by supporting promising approaches that prioritize safety, justice, and accountability.
Nearly two-thirds of violent crime reported to law enforcement went unsolved in 2022.2
In 2022, 63 percent of violent crimes in the United States that were reported to police went unsolved. This means that in a single year, there was no one arrested, charged, and referred for prosecution in over 800,000 violent crimes, including an estimated 10,000 homicides, 525,000 aggravated assaults, 169,000 robberies, and 98,000 rapes.3
Percent of Violent Crime Not Solved in the U.S. by Offense, 20224
Unsolved violent crime is a national issue facing nearly every state. In 2022, more than 50 percent of violent crimes reported to law enforcement went unsolved in 38 states. And in 6 states, over two-thirds of all violent crime went unsolved.5
Percent of Violent Crime Not Solved by State, 20226
The percentage of violent crime that goes unsolved has increased from 58 percent in 2012 to 63 percent in 2022. This increase occurred across all violent crime categories with unsolved rates increasing 4 percentage points for homicides, 10 points for aggravated assaults, 11 points for rape, and 2 points for robbery.7
Across the country, 36 states and the District of Columbia saw an increase in unsolved rates between 2012 and 2022.8
Change in Unsolved Violent Crime by State, 2012–20229
There are also significant racial disparities in unsolved violent crime. The national homicide rate of Black victims has been persistently higher than the rate of White victims. In 2021, Black people died by homicide at a rate close to 8 times higher than White people.10 However, homicides of Black victims were twice as likely to go unsolved in 2021 as homicides of White victims.11
Solving violent crime increases the certainty of accountability.
As concerns about crime have grown in recent years, state legislatures across the country have considered bills to raise penalties for violent offenses. Seven states have passed this type of legislation, aimed to send more people to prison and for longer. Unfortunately, few states have focused on ensuring that more people who commit violent crimes are arrested in the first instance. This is worrying for two reasons. First, sentence lengths are already at historic highs in most states: average time served in prison for violent offenses already increased 18 percent from 2010 to 2020.12 This suggests that increasing penalties is not, in and of itself, a solution to the problem of violent crime.
Second, focusing only on increasing punishment is a costly approach and is not the most effective way to deter future crime. Research is clear that the likelihood of being held accountable has a much greater impact on whether people commit crime than the severity of the punishment they will face if they are caught.13 This means that even the perception that someone is likely to get caught for a violent offense is a more significant crime deterrent than the severity of the punishment they might receive if they get caught.
Policies like sentencing enhancements that define accountability based on severity rather than certainty only impact the small portion of people committing violence who are currently apprehended. By increasing the percentage of violent crimes that are solved, and therefore the likelihood that someone will be caught, policymakers can ensure greater accountability for violent crime while also deterring future violence.
A recent bipartisan national survey found that 91 percent of people support increasing the percentage of crimes solved by law enforcement. Additionally, 77 percent of people reported they would support shifting resources from other parts of the criminal justice system to solving more violent crime.14
With focus and resources, jurisdictions are solving more violent crime.
Jurisdictions across the country are proving that with focus and resources, much can be done to address unsolved violent crime and support accountability, deterrence, and justice.
- Omaha has seen its solve rate for homicides increase from 32 percent in 2010 to 100 percent in 202315 through a comprehensive, community-driven violence-reduction effort called The Omaha 360 Violence Intervention and Prevention Collaborative. Omaha 360 brings together all sectors of the community to create stronger relationships between police and community using holistic approaches to violence prevention, intervention, and enforcement.16
- In Boston, the solve rate for homicides improved from 47 percent to 66 percent by increasing the size of its homicide unit, investing in civilian staff focused on victim-witness relationships and crime analysis, enhancing training for detectives, and using best practices in homicide investigations. Department leadership prioritized solving homicide cases by implementing a standard set of protocols across investigations, convening monthly peer-review sessions, and dedicating management efforts to evaluating homicide investigative casework.17
- In 2019, the Denver Police Department increased its solve rate for gun assaults from 39 to 65 percent in just 7 months by creating a new unit dedicated to nonfatal shootings and applying the same level of investigative effort as it did to homicides.18
- Arkansas recently created grant programs to provide local law enforcement agencies with resources to support efforts to solve more violent crime and prevent retaliatory gun violence through improved investigatory techniques, training and technical assistance, information systems, and increased direct services for victims of violent crime.19
- In 2023, New York provided grant funding to 10 law enforcement agencies and district attorneys’ offices to support collaborative teams of police, prosecutors, and crime analysts. The collaboration supported by this grant funding enables teams to solve nonfatal shootings through enhanced crime scene processing and evidence collection.20
As concerns about crime rise and public trust declines, policymakers need a plan to advance safety and justice that is grounded in state-specific data. Failing to deliver justice for victims sends a message that the criminal justice system is not equipped to protect and respond, further eroding the public’s confidence in the system. While there is no single solution to reducing violence and victimization, focusing on unsolved violent crime is a critical, and often overlooked, component of any comprehensive crime-reduction strategy.
How much violent crime goes unsolved in your state?
Review the latest state-specific data on unsolved violent crime here.
1 Analysis of FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data conducted by the CSG Justice Center, November 2023.
2 Ibid.
3 Ibid.
4 Ibid.
5 Ibid.
6 Ibid. Data unavailable for New York and Illinois.
7 Ibid.
8 Ibid.
9 Ibid.
10 Age-Adjusted Homicide Death Rates by Race and Sex 1980-2021 Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Most Recent Data: 2021 www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/deaths/Homicdx.asp
11 Homicide by Race Murder Accountability Project Most Recent Data: 2022 www.murderdata.org.
12 CSG Justice Center analysis of National Corrections Reporting Program data, 2010 and 2020.
13 National Institute of Justice, Five Things About Deterrence, June 5, 2016, accessed October 4, 2023, https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/five-things-about-deterrence#one.
14 “New Poll Shows Overwhelming Bipartisan Support for Investments in Crime Solving and the VICTIM Act,” Arnold Ventures, April 9, 2024, accessed August 5, 2024, https://www.arnoldventures.org/newsroom/new-poll-shows-overwhelming-bipartisan-support-for-investments-in-crime-solving-and-the-victim-act
15 “Beyond Enforcement: Omaha’s Story of Community Driven Violence Reduction,” (PowerPoint presentation, Violent Crime Reduction Summit, Indianapolis, IN, December 11–13, 2023).
16 “OMAHA 360 VIP COLLABORATIVE,” The Empowerment Network, accessed July 29, 2024, https://empoweromaha.com/omaha-360/
17 Anthony Braga, “Improving Police Clearance Rates of Shootings: A Review of the Evidence,” Manhattan Institute, July 20, 2021, accessed February 8, 2023, https://www.manhattan-institute.org/improving-police-clearance-rates-shootings-review-evidence.
18 Elise Schmelzer, “Denver police solved less than half of all nonfatal shootings last year. A new solution is showing promise,” The Denver Post, November 13, 2020, accessed August 5, 2024, https://www.denverpost.com/2020/11/13/nonfatal-shootings-denver/.
19 “AR SB 469,” Bill Track 50, accessed July 29, 2024, https://www.billtrack50.com/billdetail/1611145.
20 New York Governor’s Press Office, “Governor Hochul Announces New Initiative to Help Police and Prosecutors in Five Jurisdictions Solve Non-Fatal Shootings and Prevent Retaliatory Gun Violence,” news release, March 24, 2023