The Supervision Violations and Their Impact on Incarceration report contains the following sections:

Overview

The CSG Justice Center’s most recent analysis shows that after earlier declines in prison admissions across the country, states are now on sharply different trajectories—some continuing to lower admissions while others reverse course. These shifts underscore the need for state leaders to understand how their supervision systems are shaping prison populations, particularly when community supervision’s proportion of the prison system made up 40% of all state prison admissions in 2023.

Since 2018, four distinct trends in state prison admissions overall (that is, all admissions and not just admissions related to supervision violations) have emerged:

Sharp increases: 2 states have seen significant spikes in prison admissions.

Back to baseline: In 7 states, admissions returned to near-2018 levels.

Creeping upward to baseline: Although admissions in 25 states have started increasing since the lowest levels seen in 2021, they have not returned to the higher levels seen in 2018.

Staying low: In 14 states, prison admissions dropped sharply in 2021 and have remained low since. As of 2023, they were still 30 to 62% below 2018 levels.

4 Trends in Prison Admissions Since 2018

The CSG Justice Center, in partnership with the Correctional Leaders Association and Arnold Ventures, began exploring the impact of community supervision on incarceration in 2018 by analyzing data collected from corrections departments in all 50 states. Since that time, the CSG Justice Center has released three reports on the impact of supervision violations on prison populations and the associated costs.

The key findings below build on these first three reports and include information from a fourth data collection effort undertook in 2024.  To view the full data analysis, read the technical analysis report in the METHODOLOGY.

Key Findings

1. Admissions due to probation and parole violations have decreased nationwide since 2018.

Between 2018 and 2023, readmissions to prison for parole violations decreased by at least 10% in 31 states. Despite some states experiencing an increase in violations, many ramped up their efforts to identify alternatives to incarceration and adjusted practices to specifically focus on people at the most risk of violating their supervision conditions.

Similarly, admissions for probation violations decreased by at least 10% in 29 states between 2018 and 2023. And prison admissions for technical violations decreased in 18 states, with 15 states seeing decreases of at least 10% between 2018 and 2023. Admissions for technical violations rose by 12,000 from 2021 to 2022, however. Admissions for probation violations also increased in 2022 but have held steady since.

2. Despite some progress, supervision failures are still driving incarceration.

In 2023, nearly 200,000 people were admitted to prison for violating probation or parole, including over 110,000 people for technical violations. Despite some progress seen since 2018, supervision violations continue to be a big share of prison admissions. 

Admissions and Prison Population for Supervision Violations in 2023

Admissions

2023 total admissions:

497,000

Population

2023 total population:

1,075,000

Too often, also, technical violations like missed check-ins, failed drug tests, curfew violations, or skipped treatment sessions are treated the same as new criminal offenses, resulting in costly and unnecessary prison stays.

Effective supervision policy must distinguish between low-risk noncompliance and serious violations. Doing so improves accountability, protects public safety, and ensures that supervision serves as a constructive pathway to long-term success.

3. Most new crimes are not committed by people on supervision.

In contrast to public perception, supervision violations for new criminal activity accounted for less than 2% of all arrests in 2023.¹

Only 5% of people on parole (0.5% of total arrests) were returned to prison for a new crime violation.

Fewer than 2% of people on probation (1% of total arrests) were incarcerated for new offense violations.

Despite being under more surveillance, people on supervision are not committing crimes at disproportionate rates. Many end up in prison not for new offenses but for noncompliance tied to poverty, instability, or lack of support. 

Supervision Violations for New Criminal Activity Accounted for Less Than 2% of Arrests in 2023

4. States are spending billions to incarcerate people for supervision violations.

In 2023, states spent an estimated $10 billion incarcerating people for supervision violations—with over $3 billion spent incarcerating people for technical violations alone. Meanwhile, states continue to pour money into incarceration instead of investing in proven, cost-effective community supports that help people succeed on supervision and reduce recidivism.²

States with Highest Costs Incarcerating People for Supervision Violations

For the full table detailing costs to incarcerate people from probation and parole and from technical violations, read the technical analysis report in the METHODOLOGY.

5. Racial disparities in admissions for supervision violations further prison population imbalances.

Black people were 25% more likely than White people to be readmitted for parole violations between 2022 and 2023, yet they were 50% more likely to be imprisoned for these violations on any given day. This reveals a troubling pattern: Modest admission disparities can double when combined with longer stays, creating population imbalances twice as severe as entry rates suggest.

Disparities consistently affected Black populations across all but one metric (admissions for technical probation violations) in 2023, showing that Black people were more likely than White people to be incarcerated for supervision violations. For the Latino population (coded as Hispanic in the STATE DASHBOARD), disparities were present in two measures—probation violation prison populations due to both new offenses and technical violations. Insufficient state data prevented analysis of other racial and ethnic groups across states.

For state breakdowns, visit the Demographics section in the STATE DASHBOARD.

Racial Disparities in the Criminal Justice System by Supervision Violation Type

States in Action

The three states below have made real progress in safely reducing their supervision violation numbers since 2018. Learn how they have used legislation and cross-system collaboration to enact change. For a deeper analysis of data from all 50 states, including their supervision violation admissions and population from 2018 to 2023, visit the STATE DASHBOARD section. State-based analyses of these key findings can be found in the technical analysis report in the METHODOLOGY section.

Georgia

From 2018 to 2023, Georgia saw a 44% decrease in admissions for supervision violations, largely due to key policy reforms around the state’s supervision practices. Adjustments made in 2020—such as allowing virtual check-ins—reinforced these policy changes, increased compliance, and helped sustain the decline in the impact of violations to the state’s prison system.

In Georgia, we’re committed to grounding community supervision in evidence-based practices for better outcomes. We understand real progress comes from research, not routine, and we know that we can’t move forward without challenging the norm. The legislative changes the state made in 2017 led to the implementation of graduated sanctions and an increase in our use of risk-based supervision practices. Additional legislative changes in 2021, which allow for early discharge as an incentive for complying with probation terms, aligned with our commitment to provide opportunities for successful outcomes.
Michael Nail, Commissioner, Georgia Department of Community Supervision

Missouri

State leaders in Missouri took deliberate steps to address prison admissions for probation and parole violations. Justice Reinvestment Initiative reforms made in 2018 led to evidence-based supervision practices that were specifically targeted to reduce incarcerations for technical violations. More recently, the state has worked to improve how data is used to drive supervision best practices and strengthen reentry support by tapping into programs like Lantern and Reentry 2030. As a result, Missouri saw a 45% decrease in prison admissions for technical violations between 2018 and 2023.

As someone who grew up watching my mother work as a probation officer, I saw firsthand the power of supervision done right—how it can lift people up rather than send them back behind bars. That mission has stayed with me, and I’m proud that Missouri is now leading the way in reducing prison admissions for supervision violations and helping people succeed on probation and parole and become successful members of the community. Through thoughtful policy changes, like those enacted through the Justice Reinvestment Initiative, we’ve taken real steps to change outcomes for folks on supervision and improve public safety in the long term.
Judge W. Brent Powell, Missouri Supreme Court

Oklahoma

Oklahoma had a 59% decrease in prison admissions for probation violations from 2018 to 2023. In 2019, Oklahoma passed legislation that redefined low-level offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, allowing the state to divert people who committed nonviolent offenses from incarceration and into community supervision.

Over the next few years, during and post the pandemic, Oklahoma leaders introduced a variety of tools to make supervision less onerous and more effective in targeting their populations’ needs, including reforms to the District Attorney Supervision Fee, new processes to determine if an individual has the ability to pay fines and fees assessed, and a Probation Risk Assessment Tool to assess a person’s risk of violating probation. These changes provided officers with evidence-based strategies to tailor their supervision practices while ensuring that people aren’t failing supervision simply due to lack of money.

Oklahoma has come a long way over the last decade in rethinking how we approach supervision and incarceration. We’re starting to move away from one-size-fits-all policies and toward strategies tailored toward the individual, especially in rural areas where access to support is often limited. Investments in supervision cost a fraction of the cost of incarceration. It’s about making sure public safety and public health work hand in hand, so people on supervision have access to services and supports that aid their successful integration into our communities instead of another fee.
Michael Olson, Policy Counsel, Oklahomans for Criminal Justice Reform

Methodology

For this latest report, the CSG Justice Center analyzed data provided by departments of corrections (DOC) from all 50 states to estimate the impact community supervision has on the prison system, supervision violation disparities, and the cost of incarcerating people on community supervision, both at the state and national levels. In the event that a DOC could not provide data on their total prison admissions and populations, these were collected from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Prisoner Statistics Program. The average cost of incarceration was also collected from each state. These data included fixed and variable expenses such as maintenance, staffing, food, supplies, and health care services.

For more information on this report’s methodology, visit the METHODOLOGY.

Endnotes

¹ This number was calculated by taking the number of prison admissions in 2023 for a new crime and dividing it by the total number of arrests in 2023.

² Amanda Petteruti, et al., Pruning Prisons: How Cutting Corrections Can Save Money and Protect Public Safety (Justice Policy Institute, 2009), https://justicepolicy.org/research/pruning-prisons-how-cutting-corrections-can-save-money-and-protect-public-safety/; The Council of Economic Advisers, Returns on Investments in Recidivism-Reducing Programs (Executive Office of the President of the United States, 2018), https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Returns-on-Investments-in-Recidivism-Reducing-Programs.pdf; John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Research and Evaluation Center, Reducing Violence Without Police: A Review of Research Evidence (Arnold Ventures, 2020), https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/.