Supervision Violations and Their Impact on Incarceration

1. States pay a high price to incarcerate people for supervision violations.

In 2021, states collectively spent over $10 billion incarcerating people who violated the terms of their community supervision. More than $3 billion of that was spent on incarcerating people for committing technical violations rather than engaging in any further criminal activity. Remarkably, these figures underestimate the total cost spent across the nation because several states were not able to identify all the individuals in their prisons who were admitted for committing a violation while on community supervision. 

It’s important to note that reductions in prison populations and recidivism may not necessarily translate into immediate savings or reinvestment opportunities due to fixed expenditures such as capital assets and staffing costs, which take time to adjust. However, over time, long-term expenditures related to staffing and decisions to close unnecessary units can increase the amount of savings for each state.

2. Over time, prison admissions and populations from community supervision have decreased.

From 2018 to 2021, the number of prison admissions from community supervision decreased by one-third across the country. Most of those reductions occurred in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but admissions from community supervision nationwide remained at the 2020 level in 2021. In fact, 10 states reduced these admissions by 50 percent or more.

From 2018 to 2021, the number of people incarcerated from community supervision decreased by 28 percent across the U.S., with reductions in all but 2 states—Montana, which had an increase, and Iowa, which had no change. Nine states reduced the number of people incarcerated from community supervision by more than 40 percent.

3. There are a variety of factors that contributed to this decline in prison admissions and the numbers of people in prison for supervision violations.

For one, research shows that overall criminal activity went down during the height of the pandemic, except for homicide and intimate partner violence.¹ While this data is not exclusive to the community supervision population, it can explain some of the decline in supervision violations. Additional factors include fewer people on probation and parole, changes in behavior by both the supervision officers and their clients, and backlogs in the courts during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Below are more details about the community supervision system between 2018-2021.

Number of people on supervision

The size of the probation and parole populations determine who is at risk for incarceration for a violation. The probation population decreased 16 percent (from 3,539,950 people to 2,963,020) and the parole population decreased by 9 percent (from 877,953 people to 803,222) from 2018 to 2021.

Supervision conditions and intensity

There is a great deal of research demonstrating that clients who are supervised more intensively are more likely to fail, and that reducing supervision conditions and in-person contact improves success rates.² Starting in 2020, many states changed their supervision practices to eliminate or temporarily suspend intensive conditions and in-person contacts.³

Supervision officer responses to violations

Due to in-person precautions and changes in policies, many supervision officers reported a change in their normal activities and responses to violations during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic,⁴ reducing the use of incarceration as a response to lower-level violations.⁵

Court responses to violations

Due to court closures and other operational challenges caused by the pandemic, there were larger court backlogs during the first year of the pandemic and beyond.⁶ Additionally many prosecutors took steps to reduce jail and prison admissions by prioritizing serious violent offenses over other cases.⁷

4. However, despite this decline, community supervision continues to be a large driver of prison populations.

In 2021 alone, there were more than 178,000 admissions to prison from people on community supervision across the U.S., with over 93,000 admissions stemming from technical violations. While this is a lower number of people than in previous years, the proportion of admissions due to supervision violations has remained relatively constant (between 42 and 44 percent). Similarly, although the number of people behind bars due to supervision violations has been reduced, the proportion of the population that is made up of people from community supervision has remained relatively constant (fluctuating between 27 and 25 percent of the total population).

Change in Admissions and Prison Population for Supervision Violations from 2018 to 2021

5. States that experienced larger decreases in prison populations due to supervision violations also experienced larger declines in violent crime.

Between 2018 and 2021, state incarceration rates went down by an average of 19 percent, and incarceration for supervision violations rates declined an average of 27 percent. Some policymakers have questioned whether these decreases had an impact on public safety.

This question is difficult to answer conclusively, but there is little evidence that declining prison populations negatively impact public safety.⁸

Over the same time when incarceration rates decreased dramatically, including for people admitted for supervision violations, violent crime remained at approximately the same level (the 2018 US violent crime rate was 1850 per 10,000, and the 2021 US violent crime rate was 1857). There was no significant relationship between changes in the number of people incarcerated for supervision violations and changes in the violent crime rate at the state level.

6. In 20 states, racial disparities in parole revocation rates exacerbated overall disparities between White and Black Americans found in the justice system.

Although criminal justice system disparities have been reduced over the past two decades, large disparities remain.¹⁰ There is evidence of racial disparities at just about every point in the criminal justice system, from who is arrested and prosecuted, to how long people remain incarcerated, to who is recidivating. The size of the disparity changes at different points in the system and varies by state but exists at every stage. Untangling the data to determine at which point in the system disparities are occurring or made worse is a necessary step for any state looking to develop a plan to address them. 

The CSG Justice Center’s new analysis from 2020 data¹¹ suggests that, when looking at the data nationally, parole revocations are one point in the system when the disparities lessen (see chart below). The decrease in disparity at this point in the system is the result of several states where Black adults have their parole revoked at a lower rate than White adults.  

Disparities between White and Black Populations in the U.S. Begin Prior to Criminal Justice System Contact and Persist across All Stages of the System

This chart shows the disparities between Black adults and White adults across the criminal justice system. The higher the rate, the greater the difference between Black adults and White adults. The rates shown are relative rate ratios (also known as relative rate index) and calculated by dividing the rate for Black adults by the rate for White adults.​

For more information, see Methodology. ​

However, there is wide variation from state to state and not enough data from others to analyze. Eighteen states in 2020 did not exhibit disparities in revocation rates that disadvantage Black people once they are on parole. But 20 states increased the disparities, and in 11 states, Black people were reincarcerated from parole at over a 20 percent higher rate.  

The map below provides the disparities in parole revocations by state between White and Black populations, with the percentage indicating the difference in revocation rates. Positive values indicate how much higher the revocation rate is for Black people compared to White people. Negative values represent how much lower the revocation rate is for Black people on parole. For example, a state with a 25 percent disparity means that Black people are 25 percent more likely to have their parole revoked. 

key,value
WY,125
RI,105
MN,73
NJ,71
NE,55
NM,38
IL,30
IA,29
IN,27
WI,27
PA,25
MT,22
CO,20
AZ,18
ID,16
CA,14
KS,14
WA,11
OH,4
MD,2
AL,NULL
AK,NULL
CT,NULL
HI,NULL
LA,NULL
ME,NULL
MI,NULL
NV,NULL
OK,NULL
OR,NULL
SC,NULL
SD,NULL
VT,NULL
AR,-3
FL,-4
UT,-5
NC,-9
MA,-14
NH,-15
VA,-15
WV,-15
NY,-16
GA,-17
MS,-26
TX,-28
DE,-30
KY,-33
ND,-33
TN,-39
MO,-46